A month of DSM exposure, measured block by block.
A full month on a 100 MW AC plant in Rajasthan, measured across 1,661 settlement blocks, with deviation charges reconciled against generation revenue.
Deviation band distribution across 1,661 blocks
Blocks per band by absolute deviation across the window. This is the measured distribution for July 2026, not a comparison against a previous period.
Context
Sitara Solar is a 100 MW AC plant in Rajasthan settling under state DSM. Over July 2026 the site was measured across 1,661 fifteen-minute settlement blocks, every one scored for deviation against schedule.
What we did
Day-ahead and intraday forecasting at 15-minute resolution, with deviation attributed per block and rolled up by band so exposure could be read by cause rather than by date.
Result
Deviation charges over the month came to ₹128,084 against generation revenue of ₹66,995,236 — 0.19% of revenue.
Normalised MAE across the month was 6.83%, with the best day at 4.71% and the worst at 11.47%. P95 deviation averaged 27.98%.
Of 1,661 blocks, 967 sat inside the 0–10% band. 295 blocks exceeded 20%, and those are where the charge concentrates.
DSM economics
The applicable deviation settlement regulation is not recorded for this site.
Deviation band detail
| Deviation band | Blocks |
|---|---|
| 0–10% | 967 |
| 10–15% | 222 |
| 15–20% | 177 |
| >20% | 295 |
Operational impact
- Deviation attributable by block and band rather than as a monthly total
- The >20% band isolated as the target for schedule optimisation
- Accuracy tracked daily, so drift is visible within the month rather than after it
Next steps
The >20% band carries disproportionate charge relative to its block count. Ramp-event handling and intraday revision cadence are the two items that address it.
Talk to the teamMethodology
Window 1–31 July 2026, 1,661 fifteen-minute blocks, 31 days with data.
Accuracy is reported as normalised MAE: absolute error divided by MQmax, the maximum actual generation for that day. This is the backend's `MAPE` field under its true definition. A textbook MAPE, which divides by per-block actual, would read very differently on the same data.
Deviation charges are computed at a PPA rate of ₹3500/MWh. No prior scheduling baseline has been measured on this site, so no reduction is claimed.
No days were excluded. Every day in the window had a complete feed.
- Blocks
- 1661 × 15 min
- Denominator
- MQmax — maximum actual generation for the day
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