Deviation exposure down 32% across eight months.
Eight consecutive months on a 300 MW AC asset settling under a 5% deviation band, comparing the first quarter of the window against the last.
DSM penalty as a share of revenue, month by month
Each point is one calendar month. The series is volatile rather than a smooth decline — best month December 2025 at 1.14%, worst November 2025 at 10.54%, and the final three months rise again.
Context
Masaya Solar is a 300 MW AC asset in Madhya Pradesh, run as two 150 MW parcels and settled under a 5% deviation band: nothing charged inside 5%, 10% charged between 5 and 10, and full charge beyond 10.
Across eight consecutive months the plant delivered 431,817 MWh over 22,751 settlement blocks.
What we did
Day-ahead and intraday forecasting at 15-minute resolution, with every block scored against the band and rolled up monthly, so exposure could be tracked as a trend rather than assessed one bill at a time.
Result
Deviation charges averaged 5.71% of generation revenue across the first three months and 3.86% across the last three — a 32% reduction.
The path there was not smooth. Exposure fell to 1.14% by December 2025, rose through spring, and closed at 6% in June. The last three months move upward, and that is the part of the picture worth acting on.
DSM economics
The applicable deviation settlement regulation is not recorded for this site.
Operational impact
- Exposure tracked as a monthly series rather than assessed one bill at a time
- Bad months identifiable against the asset's own history instead of in isolation
- The cost of a tighter settlement band quantified on real generation
Next steps
The last three months move in the wrong direction. Ramp-event handling and intraday revision cadence are what address it, and a further window will show whether the improvement holds.
Talk to the teamMethodology
Eight calendar months, November 2025 to June 2026, at 15-minute settlement resolution. Penalty is the platform's own DSM calculation at the site PPA rate of ₹2,710/MWh under a 5% available-capacity band.
The comparison is first-three-month mean against last-three-month mean. Single month endpoints are not used because this series is volatile enough that the choice of endpoint would determine the answer.
- Blocks
- 22751 × 15 min
- Denominator
- generation revenue at the site PPA rate
- Baseline
- The same asset's own first three months in the window (Nov 2025 – Jan 2026)
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